Happy New Year!  It's going to be a very profitable year.  I remember when January 1 was a great day for college football, now it's mediocre at best with lousy match ups and games stretched out for another week.  It's hard to get excited about Okla/Conn, Tex Tech/Northwestern,  or Mich/Miss State - we really need a playoff or at least a better match up system.  On that note,  my play for today will be in the NHL.

Take the Kings -125 vs Sharks.   

The kings have been strong on defense all year until the last 2 games - both games that they lost their composure in and lost by 3 goals.  On the season they only give up 2.46 goals and at home only 2.0.  Quick is scheduled to be back in goal and I expect a bounce back performance from him along with the entire team.  This is also San Jose's 3rd straight on the road and they are average at best on the road.  The teams met on 12/27 and Quick shut them out 4-0 in San Jose,  expect more of the same

Limited write ups today,  daughters 10th birthday and on my way to ice skating and chinese food,  yuk! for the chinese food but i'll have a blast skating with her. 

Syracuse pk over Kansas State  -  1st bowl in a while for the Cuse,  K State finished the year poorly, got to think the Cuse will have the HF advantage and pull out a close one

Blue Jackets +105 over Leafs - Columbus to break their road woes here against a Leafs team never a good favorite, even a small HF

Oilers +130 over Avalanche - value bet here on the HD,  Colorado not the same team as last year, and I think Oilers can pull this out as + money

Kings -110 over Flyers - Flyers off tough game last night,  Kings home - I'll take the small HF

The 2010-11 edition of the Golden State Warriors are not the same as recent years past.  They are only averaging 102 ppg overall, and 99.2 on the road.  Some things never change though and its their lack of defense, giving up 106.3 overall and 106.8 on the road with opponents shooting 46% against them. 

The Hawks have struggled to score recently,  they average 96.4 ppg overall,  98.6 at home, but in their last 5 they are only averaging 90 ppg versus the powerhouses of Milwaukee, New Orleans, Cleveland,Orlando and New Jersey - not exactly the defensive stallworths of the league.  To compound that they have gone under 6 in a row and 8 of 9.  So a normal person would be wondering why are we playing this game over?

Of the last 10 meetings between these 2 teams, 8 have gone over.  All of the combined scores have eclipsed 202 total points and this is the type of opponent that the Hawks can finally explode on.  Add to that its Golden State's first of a East Coast trip and the Hawks last home game before a West Coast Trip and I feel we will have a higher scoring game, with a total of more than 210 points being scored. 

N.C. State +120 Money Line over West Virginia
 
Bowl season picks can be boiled down to normally 2 factors,  motivation and match ups.  This is a pick mainly based on motivation.  In my opinion West Virginia has the superior talent but not superior enough to overcome the internal coaching issues and a lack of quality practices leading up to the game .  The West Virginia faithful who normally support their team very well have not bought their allotment of tickets for this game continuing to show a lack of support for the state of the program.  . 
In Coach O'Brien's third season, the Wolfpack had their first winning season. A costly loss at the end of the year cost them a shot at the ACC title, but O'Brien will have his team ready as he continues to build his program.   He is now coaching with many of his recruits and holds a stellar  6-2 SU bowl record. 
Both teams have stellar defenses, particularly against the run,  but N. C. State Quarterback Russell Wilson could be the difference maker in this game.  He is a dual threat quarterback that can keep plays alive and cause defenses trouble when the play breaks down.
I would play this game on the moneyline, as I think there is sufficient value to take the + money instead of the points.